What a gorgeous day today with high temperatures returning to the 70s for the first time this month along with a lot of sunshine! While temperatures make a run at 80 degrees for Thursday, we will trend much cooler for Friday and beyond as the potential for heavy rainfall returns to the area.
Temperatures may not fall out of the upper 50s to lower 60s across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa tonight as southerly winds help to pull a warm & slightly more humid air mass over head. Most of tonight looks dry until daybreak Friday when a complex of thunderstorms moves from the Dakotas this evening to southeast Minnesota by early Thursday morning. While severe weather doesn’t look likely with this line, I can’t rule out wind and some hail with these storms along with localized heavy rainfall. Once this line of storms clears, look for more sunshine for Thursday with high temperatures approaching the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew points briefly cracking 60 degrees which will help it feel a bit more muggy!
The line of thunderstorms Thursday morning will be moving just a head of a cold front which is expected to move across southern Minnesota during the midday on Thursday before stalling out across central Iowa by Thursday evening. Moist air surges northward along this front across Iowa for Thursday evening which is expected to touch off showers and thunderstorms across the northern half of Iowa and perhaps southeast Minnesota late Thursday evening into Thursday night. Some of the stronger storms that develop during this time may contain strong winds and large hail, but widespread severe weather is not expected at this time.
The threat for thunderstorms lingers into Friday as the old cold front across Iowa turns back north as a warm front. This will touch off more rounds of thunderstorms throughout the day on Friday with the biggest threat for severe weather remaining to our southwest across western Iowa and Nebraska. With that said, thunderstorms moving across southern Minnesota and northern Iowa could contain large hail and strong winds on Friday with temperatures only topping the upper 50s.
Rain, unfortunately, looks likely for this weekend as a large area of low pressure lifts across the Upper Midwest. While I don’t think Saturday will be a washout, you will want to look for indoor plans when the skies finally do decide to open up. The threat for severe weather this weekend may remain just to our south across Iowa for Saturday with the threat for severe weather shifting east across the mid-Mississippi River Valley for Sunday. Temperatures this weekend top the lower 60s for both Saturday and Sunday with rain remaining likely into Sunday. Total rainfall accumulations between Thursday and Sunday night may range from 1 to 3 inches.