Rain is the name of the game this weekend as the storm track remains directly overhead. While rain is likely throughout this weekend, I don’t think it will be a washout with at least a couple hours of dry weather for Saturday and perhaps again on Sunday. Along with the threat for rain, we will need to keep an eye on the chance for severe weather on Saturday, especially for the late afternoon and early evening hours.
Rain showers move across southeast Minnesota northern Iowa this evening with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder. This rain shower threat takes a break then for the overnight hours with low temperatures tonight falling into the upper 40s.
We’re eyeing two rounds of thunderstorms for Saturday, one round just after daybreak and the other round for the late afternoon and early evening hours. This first round of thunderstorms may contain hail and some wind, but the overall threat for severe weather should remain low. We then catch a break from the rain from the mid morning through the early afternoon.
Saturday afternoon’s thunderstorm threat will be tied to an advancing warm front and the northward progress it makes. The placement of this front will not only impact the risk for severe thunderstorms, but it will also have a big impact on temperatures. If this warm front lifts north of Rochester, temperatures could easily rise into the 70s with a higher risk for severe thunderstorms. If this front gets hung up along the MN/IA border, then temperatures may only top the lower 50s for southeast Minnesota with just rain showers. If we do see severe thunderstorms late Saturday afternoon, the biggest risk may come from large hail and damaging winds.
Scattered rain showers stick around into Sunday with a more certain forecast of cooler temperatures. Highs on Sunday will be relegated to the lower 50s along with a stiff, north wind.
Monday looks like the lone dry day now for the foreseeable future as rain returns to the forecast for next Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures may remain on the cool side for next week with highs holding in the upper 50s to lower 60s for Monday and Tuesday with a rebound back into the mid to upper 60s by the midweek.